DAOrayaki ｜DAOrayaki Hot Trend Pridiction Process
If you are good at observing the market and can accurately predict which articles can become hot. Then, congratulations, this is the stage for you.
In the DAOrayaki Hot Trend Prediction section, there are multiple articles selected by the community for each event. The price of staking in the article reflects the possibility that the market will consider it becoming hot.
If the article you stake in ends up being the hottest one, you will receive a certain return for each SHARE you have purchased.
Phase 1: Hot trend proposal
The DAOrayaki hot trend prediction Market opens once a week. DAOrayaki will select N (5<N<10) hot spots every week to open the hot trend prediction market. In the early stage of governance, community editors handpick articles that have been published in the previous week and submit them to the prediction market. Later, it will be gradually handed over to the community, using the way of community proposal to set up hot articles.
Duration: 1 day
Passing Requirement: In the early stage of governance, community editors handpick articles that have been published in the previous week and submit them to the prediction market. Later, it will be gradually handed over to the community, using the way of community proposal to set up hot articles.
Phase 2: Voting
Hot articles will be placed on DAOrayaki Futarchy hot forecast market events. Daorayaki hot trend prediction market will open a prediction question, “Which article will be the hottest trend in the next seven days (YY-MM-DD to YY-MM-DD)?” . Prediction market addresses will be posted on The Daorayaki Community and Discord. Community members with YakID can bet on hot articles in prediction markets based on their beliefs. The voting period is 3 days, and after the third day, the markets will be closed! Hot articles with Top1 prices will enter phase 3.
Duration: 3 days
Passing Requirement: Depending on the price, Hot articles with Top1 prices will enter phase 3.
Phase 3: Resolving
The prediction market will be closed after 3 days and spread heat calculation will be carried out, with a time period of 4 days. DAOrayaki uses a method based on Hacker News to calculate article popularity. After the countdown, the hot trend prediction results (heat prediction trend/current heat) will be released.
the calculation formula is as follows:
W: Expression of content quality, DAOrayaki Chinese article: number of views on official website + wechat official account, English article: number of views on official website +Medium.
I: initial content quality, set to a fixed value of 1
G: Attenuation weight, which changes with time. The greater the value, the greater the attenuation speed. Set it to 2.
T: Time, in days
Duration: 4 days
Passing Requirement: 4 days heat propagation time, heat prediction trend/current heat comparison at the end of 4 days, and then move into phase 4.
Phase 4: Award distribution
Prediction winner (current trend = predicted trend) will be rewarded by their share of assets, each unit of assets will be rewarded with 1 YAKID (1/N YAKID for N correct answers), and other voters will lose their staked tokens. All voters who staked will receive additional YAKID participation rewards.
Duration: 1 day